#####0. Title screen include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/00_title/playlist_ff_00_title.sos #####1. Introduction include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/01_intro/playlist_ff_01_introvideo.sos ####2. Clouds Leading Up to the Concert include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/01_intro/playlist_ff_01_clouds.sos ########## 3. Global Temperature Difference include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/02_temp/playlist_ff_02_temp.sos ########## 4. Cold Front include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/03_fronts/playlist_ff_03_cold.sos ########## 6. Warm Front include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/03_fronts/playlist_ff_03_warm.sos ########## 7. Occluded Front include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/03_fronts/playlist_ff_03_occluded.sos ######## 8. Fronts highlighted include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/03_fronts/playlist_ff_03_frontlines.sos ######10. Color Enhance IR Canned Sequence include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/04_color/playlist_ff_04_color.sos ########## 11. Equitemporials include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/05_punchline/playlist_ff_05_equitemporals.sos ########## 12. Punchline include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/05_punchline/playlist_ff_05_viewcam.sos ########## 13. Review of Punchline, Satellite View include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/05_punchline/playlist_ff_05_satellite.sos ###14. Real Time Data include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/sat/playlist.sos #####15.Credits include = /shared/sos/media/extras/live_programs/lhs/fronts_forecasts/00_title/playlist_credits.sos #>---Live Program Information--- #> #>Fronts and Forecasts focuses on the "trends" method of weather forecasting. In the trends method, forecaster looks at a front moving towards the area, looks at the speed at which that front is moving, and calculates when that front will arrive at his or her location. #> #> **Note: #> - Lines that begin with ">>" and bracketed text denote presenter instructions. #> - "(Q?)" denotes discussion questions. #> #>---(1) Title Screen--- #> #>Welcome to _____________. My name is ______. Today, we will be using Science On a Sphere (SOS) to predict the weather. SOS was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The image you see is projected from four projectors [point toward the projectors]. The sphere is a six-foot diameter fiberglass sphere. #>>>Pause here for any questions about the SOS. #>And now, let's get started with Fronts and Forecasts.... #> #>---(2) Introduction to Scenario--- #> #>>>Pause Dataset #>Imagine that we are trying to forecast the weather for a concert at the Greek Theater in Berkeley, California. Let's start by looking at the clouds during the few days leading up to this event. These images of clouds are created by measuring the infrared light emitted from the Earth's surface. #>When there are clouds, they absorb the radiation emitted by the Earth below and emit their own radiation at a much cooler temperature. Any area that has clouds shows up cooler than the ground, allowing us to digital model these clouds. #>Let's watch what happens over the few hours up to the afternoon we are trying to make the decision. #> #>---(3) IR Clouds up to March 24 11:00--- #> #>(Q?) So what are your initial thoughts? Do you think it is going to rain? #>>>Give the visitors a chance to share their ideas about whether or not it will rain. Ask visitors to explain their reasoning. If it does not come up in discussion ask the following question. #>(Q?) Do clouds in the sky always mean that it is going to rain? #>>>Give visitors a chance to explain that they have seen clouds in the sky that did not lead to rain. #>We're going to step back from our local forecast for a bit and look at some global patterns affecting weather that will help us recognize cloud systems that are more likely to lead to rain. #> #>---(4) GLAPS Surface Temperatures--- #> #>You are looking at an image of the air temperature for the few days before the concert. #>(Q?) What do you think the colors indicate? What patterns do you notice in temperature? #>>>Give visitors a chance to share that red is warm, blue is cold, warmer at equator than at poles. #>The uneven heating of the Earth means that there are large masses of air that are cold that move down from the poles and warm air moving up from the equator. The United States is located right where these air masses tend to collide. #> #>---(5) Fronts Animation - Cold Front--- #> #>Let's look at how colliding air masses play out in the atmosphere. Here are three examples. The first is when a cold air mass overtakes a warm air mass. As the cold air catches up with the warm wet air, the warm air is pushed into the upper atmosphere. The air cools rapidly, the water condenses, and sudden heavy rainfall and thunderstorms occur. Tornados can occur when the temperature difference between the two air masses is particularly large. #> #>---(6) Fronts Animation - Warm Front--- #> #>Now let's look at what happens when a warm air mass overtakes a cold air mass. Now let's look at what happens when a warm air mass overtakes a cold air mass. As the warm air runs into the cold air, it rises slowly over the top of the cold air mass, cooling slowly. Warm fronts can produce light rain over a long period of time. #> #>---(7) Fronts Animation - Occluded Front--- #> #>This is what is called an occluded front -- when a cold front immediately follows a warm front. This kind of front can lead to a lot of rain. #> #>---(8) IR Clouds with Fronts--- #> #>Let's look at what fronts look like in the satellite data. In our satellite cloud data, you can't tell whether it is a warm front or a cold front, but you can identify fronts. #> #>We are going to watch some cloud formations to get a sense of what front look like. Blinking red lines will appear on some sample fronts. #>(Q?) What do you notice about the shape of the fronts? #>>>Give the visitors a chance to share what they notice about the shape of the fronts. #>Fronts generally show up as a clear line of clouds, sometimes straight, sometimes with the ends curving and bending to wrap in on itself. Let's take a look at the days right before our concert and see if we can find some fronts coming into California. #>(Q?) What do you notice? Do you see any fronts off the coast of California? #>>>Give visitors a chance to point out fronts. #> #>---(9) Color Enhanced IR Clouds--- #> #>This infrared image has been color-enhanced to give us more detail about the data. Remember that we can model the location and shape of clouds in the infrared because they are cooler than the surface of the earth. Temperature can also be used to give us even more information. The height of clouds is inversely proportional to temperature, meaning that the tallest clouds are the coldest. It is often the tallest clouds that bring the most severe weather. #>In this image, the white clouds are low lying, the purple clouds are taller, and the blue clouds are the highest and most likely connected to severe weather. #>Now that we can recognize fronts and we know that fronts tend to bring rain, we are going to use a simple weather forecasting method called "trend forecasting" to decide whether or it will rain during our outdoor concert. In trend forecasting, you need to know the direction a front is traveling and how quickly it is moving towards your location. #> #>---(10) Equitemporals--- #> #>It's 11 am on March 24, and we are trying to decide whether a concert happening outdoors starting at 7:00 pm is going to get enough rain to make it worth paying extras for weather proofing the set. We've got a front moving towards us and based on how quickly it's moved in the last 12 hours, we are able to estimate it's speed over then next 14-16 hours if nothing changes. The lines on the map show where we predict the front might be using trend forecasting. The zero line is our location right now. Each number lined shows us how many hours from now that weather will reach our location at the Greek Theater in Berkeley. #>(Q?) What do you think? Should our tour manager spend extra money weather proofing the band's equipment? #>>>Give the visitors a chance to share whether or not they would cancel the concert and why. #> #>---(11) March 24 Punchline View Cam--- #> #>Okay let's see what happens over the next 8 hours and find out if you made the right decision. #>Clear blue skies at 11:00 am when you are trying to decide. Now lets watch the rest of the afternoon play out....... 7 pm, it's getting cloudier. And halfway through the band's second set -- rain, thunder, and lightening and the crowds run back to their cars...... #> #>---(12) Punchline Satellite View--- #> #>Here is the same series in time again from the satellite view. #>(Q?) What do you notice about the front as it moves through the San Francisco Bay Area? #>>>Give the visitors time to share what they notice. #>Watching the weather change in these two views, the ground camera and the satellite view, shows you how difficult it can be to predict the weather. As the front moves, it changes, stacking up more or fewer clouds and creating ever changing pockets of extreme weather. The kind of forecasting we used in this program is often called "Now-casting" as it is best used for predicting what will happen in the next few hours. As more time elapses, more changes about the weather. Predicting the weather long term involves additional factors and more complex modeling. Small changes in conditions can lead up to big changes over time. #> #>---(13) Real Time Color Enhanced IR Satellite with Blue Marble--- #> #>Now that you have some practice in recognizing fronts and trend forecasting, take a look at this real time data. You are looking at the clouds over the last month to 2 hours ago. #>(Q?) What predictions do you have about what the weather will be like tomorrow where you are? #>>>Give visitors a chance to share their ideas. #>There are many more factors effecting weather than we looked at in this presentation. Meteorologists use mathematical models that take temperature, wind speed, changes in air pressure, and other factors into account when making their forecasts. Weather is complicated. Small changes in conditions can lead to big changes in outcomes over time. #> #>---(14) Credits--- #> #>Thanks, everyone, for participating in today's presentation and trying your hand at weather forecasting. Keep an eye out tomorrow and see if your predictions are right. And next time you are looking at satellite pictures in your local forecast or online, keep a look out for fronts headed toward your area. #> #>