Science On a Sphere
Climate Model: Sea Ice Change (GFDL a1b) 1861 - 2100
Details
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Description
Permalink to DescriptionIn the coming decades, the Arctic region is projected to warm at about twice the rate of the global average according to the scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. This is not good news for the Arctic sea ice. In fact, the concentration of sea ice in the northern latitudes has been decreasing over the past 30 years and this trend is expected to continue as the climate changes. The disappearance of sea ice can have a major impact globally. Melting sea ice can disturb the global ocean conveyor belt, impact sea life and the fishing industry, and change the Earth energy budget. Sea ice cools the climate because it is reflective and so returns much of the sun's warming back to space. As the ice melts, more of this energy is absorbed in the darker ocean water. The temperature increases as more sunlight is absorbed rather than reflected. This is a positive feedback loop because as temperature rises, more sea ice melts causing increased absorption which leads to rising temperatures.
In order to better understand how the climate is changing and the extent of the impact on the Arctic sea ice, scientists create models designed to simulate what has happened and what is likely to happen in the future. The model output for this dataset comes from GFDL's CM2.1 coupled model. The simulation of past years takes into account the historical record of greenhouse gases, volcanic aerosols, black and organic carbon aerosols, sulfate aerosols, ozone, solar irradiance, and land surface changes. For the future, they use the SRES A1B scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which assumes a mid-level increase in 21st century greenhouse gas levels. This simulation shows the change in the average sea ice concentration for August, September, and October. The sea ice in the Arctic is at a minimum during these months. Rather than steadily decline, the sea ice is projected to go through periods of small and large changes. In fact, it is thought that the melting of the sea ice could accelerate through the 21st century, with very little summer sea ice remaining by the year 2100.
Next Generation Science Standards
Permalink to Next Generation Science StandardsCross-cutting Concepts
Permalink to Cross-cutting ConceptsGrades 3–5
C1 Patterns. Students identify similarities and differences in order to sort and classify natural objects and designed products. They identify patterns related to time, including simple rates of change and cycles, and to use these patterns to make predictions.
C7 Stability and Change. Students measure change in terms of differences over time, and observe that change may occur at different rates. Students learn some systems appear stable, but over long periods of time they will eventually change.
Grades 6–8
C1 Patterns. Students recognize that macroscopic patterns are related to the nature of microscopic and atomic-level structure. They identify patterns in rates of change and other numerical relationships that provide information about natural and human designed systems. They use patterns to identify cause and effect relationships, and use graphs and charts to identify patterns in data.
C3 Scale Proportion and Quantity. Students observe time, space, and energy phenomena at various scales using models to study systems that are too large or too small. They understand phenomena observed at one scale may not be observable at another scale, and the function of natural and designed systems may change with scale. They use proportional relationships (e.g., speed as the ratio of distance traveled to time taken) to gather information about the magnitude of properties and processes. They represent scientific relationships through the use of algebraic expressions and equations
C5 Energy and Matter. Students learn matter is conserved because atoms are conserved in physical and chemical processes. They also learn within a natural or designed system, the transfer of energy drives the motion and/or cycling of matter. Energy may take different forms (e.g. energy in fields, thermal energy, energy of motion). The transfer of energy can be tracked as energy flows through a designed or natural system.
C7 Stability and Change. Students explain stability and change in natural or designed systems by examining changes over time, and considering forces at different scales, including the atomic scale. Students learn changes in one part of a system might cause large changes in another part, systems in dynamic equilibrium are stable due to a balance of feedback mechanisms, and stability might be disturbed by either sudden events or gradual changes that accumulate over time
Grades 9–12
C1 Patterns. Students observe patterns in systems at different scales and cite patterns as empirical evidence for causality in supporting their explanations of phenomena. They recognize classifications or explanations used at one scale may not be useful or need revision using a different scale; thus requiring improved investigations and experiments. They use mathematical representations to identify certain patterns and analyze patterns of performance in order to re-engineer and improve a designed system.
C7 Stability and Change. Students understand much of science deals with constructing explanations of how things change and how they remain stable. They quantify and model changes in systems over very short or very long periods of time. They see some changes are irreversible, and negative feedback can stabilize a system, while positive feedback can destabilize it. They recognize systems can be designed for greater or lesser stability
Disciplinary Core Ideas
Permalink to Disciplinary Core IdeasGrades 3–5
ESS2.D Weather & Climate. Climate describes patterns of typical weather conditions over different scales and variations. Historical weather patterns can be analyzed so that they can make predictions about what kind of weather might happen next.
ESS3.B Natural Hazards. A variety of hazards result from natural processes; humans cannot eliminate hazards but can reduce their impacts.
ESS3.C Human Impact on Earth systems. Societal activities have had major effects on the land, ocean, atmosphere, and even outer space. Societal activities can also help protect Earth’s resources and environments.
ESS3.D Global Climate Change. If Earth’s global mean temperature continues to rise, the lives of humans and other organisms will be affected in many different ways.
Grades 6–8
ESS2.D Weather & Climate. Complex interactions determine local weather patterns and influence climate, including the role of the ocean.
ESS3.B Natural Hazards. Mapping the history of natural hazards in a region and understanding related geological forces can help forecast the locations and likelihoods of future events, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and severe weather.
ESS3.C Human Impact on Earth systems. Human activities have altered the biosphere, sometimes damaging it, although changes to environments can have different impacts for different living things. Activities and technologies can be engineered to reduce people’s impacts on Earth.
ESS3.D Global Climate Change. Human activities affect global warming. Decisions to reduce the impact of global warming depend on understanding climate science, engineering capabilities, and social dynamics.
Grades 9–12
ESS2.D Weather & Climate. The role of radiation from the sun and its interactions with the atmosphere, ocean, and land are the foundation for the global climate system. Global climate models are used to predict future changes, including changes influenced by human behavior and natural factors
ESS3.B Natural Hazards. Natural hazards and other geological events have shaped the course of human history at local, regional, and global scales. Human activities can contribute to the frequency and intensity of some natural hazards.
ESS3.C Human Impact on Earth systems. Sustainability of human societies and the biodiversity that supports them requires responsible management of natural resources, including the development of technologies that produce less pollution and waste and that preclude ecosystem degradation.
ESS3.D Global Climate Change. Global climate models used to predict changes continue to be improved, although discoveries about the global climate system are ongoing and continually needed.