Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Temperature Change from 1870-2199

GFDL Model (2 mb)

GFDL Model (large 26 mb)

UKMET Model (2 mb)

CCSM Model (2 mb)

Description:

"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by WMO and UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. It is open to all members of the UN and of WMO." - from www.ipcc.ch In an effort to better visualize the future of climate change, the IPCC releases assessment reports on the current state of the atmosphere and what the future could hold. Models from various atmospheric and oceanic organizations are included in these reports in order to establish a broad understanding of the science. Data from three of the IPCC models following temperature change from 1870 - 2199 have been formatted for Science On a Sphere^® .

The models available on SOS are the Climate Model 2.1, developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; the Community Climate System Model 3.0, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research; and the Hadley Centre HadCM3, developed by the United Kingdom Meteorology Office. All three models have similar forcing agents. For the past data they use the 20th Century Model 20C3M, which takes into account the historical record of greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosol concentrations, volcanic aerosol optical depths, and historical solar irradiation. For the future they use the SRES A1B scenario which assumes very rapid economic growth with low population growth and the introduction of new and more efficient technology. Even though the all the models use the same inputs, the results vary because each of the three models have differing dynamics and physics parametrizations. In all of the models, CO₂ production increases until it reaches 717ppm in the year 2100; then it is cut off.

The temperatures displayed in the datasets are all a comparison to temperatures in 2000. Blue tones on the visualization represent temperatures cooler than those in 2000, while red tones represent tempertures warmer than those in 2000.

Notable Features: GFDL CM2.1

Warming in North America roughly uniform
Area off of Greenland stays cool
Global mean warming: 2.9° C
North America mean warming: 4.9° C

Notable Features: NCAR CCSM3.0

Rapid warming of the arctic areas while the continental US warms slowly
Area off of Greenland warms up
Global mean warming: 2.7° C
North American mean warming: 4.2° C

Notable Features: UKMET HadCM3

Area off of Greenland has cold spot to the South and warm spot to the North but by 2198 all of Greenland is warm
Arctic warms faster than other areas, though not on the scale of the NCAR CCSM3.0
Global mean warming: 3.7° C
North American mean warming: 5.7° C

Data Category

Major: Models and Simulations
Minor: IPCC

Keywords:

Models and Simulations, CO₂, global warming, temperature, GFDL, NCAR, UKMET

Data Set Name	ipcc_temp/gfdl
Data Set Source	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Data Set Developer	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Visualization Developer	Nikki Prive, NOAA/GSD
Audio	No
Download	FTP
Google Earth	KML file

Data Set Name	ipcc_temp/ccsm
Data Set Source	National Center for Atmospheric Research
Data Set Developer	National Center for Atmospheric Research
Visualization Developer	Nikki Prive, NOAA/GSD
Audio	No
Download	FTP

Data Set Name	ipcc_temp/had
Data Set Source	United Kingdom Meteorology Office
Data Set Developer	United Kingdom Meteorology Office
Visualization Developer	Nikki Prive, NOAA/GSD
Audio	No
Download	FTP
Google Earth	KML file